Game 1 of the NBA Finals will start tonight. The San Antonio Spurs, who are coming off of 10 days of rest, will be well-rested and healthy. Tony Parker, who has been dealing with calf issues, should be completely healthy. Duncan and Ginobili (who by the way has been pretty absent these playoffs) should also be energetic and ready to play. With that being said, will the extended break help or hurt the Spurs?
For the "big three", the rest period should definitely help. Although Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili may seem out of rhythm in the early going, look for them to settle in by at least mid-second quarter. Remember, the Heat, who also dealt with extended rest periods in the first two playoff rounds, looked out-of-sync during their first games against the Bulls and Pacers. For San Antonio, the key is whether the extended rest period will help the role players. San Antonio's key role players, which include Kawhi Leonard (age 21), Danny Green (age 25), and Tiago Splitter (age 28), are all pretty young (obviously I'm ignoring Boris Diaw and Matt Bonner). These young guns don't necessarily need the extended rest period. Their young legs should recover very quickly. In fact, a case can be made that the extended rest may negatively impact their performance.
Out of these role players, Green is depended on as the main 3-pt threat. With a playoff 3-pt percentage of 43.1%, Green has been deadly accurate from the outside line. Additionally, Leonard, who has an impressive playoff 3-pt percentage of 41.7%, can also hit the outside shot. With these 2 players stroking the three (plus Gary Neal), San Antonio can space the floor and allow Tony Parker to penetrate. The problem occurs because of the extended rest. Green and Leonard have been hot during the playoffs, and an extended rest could hurt their rhythm. Because the Spurs rely almost solely on excellent ball movement (versus one-on-one penetration) to get open shots, an extended rest can ruin their rhythm and result in less clean, open looks.
Tiago Splitter has been huge during the playoffs. He's had to guard Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph. Splitter's post defense has been superb this season. Additionally, he's been less foul-prone and has done a better job of staying straight up when dealing with driving guards. Yet against Miami, Splitter will have to guard the jump-shooting tandem of Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem. These match-ups will be drastically different from the ones that Splitter is used to facing. Because of the Heat's small ball tendencies, it won't be rare to see Splitter matched up against Mike Miller or Shane Battier either. As a result, we may be seeing much less Tiago Splitter this series, and consequently, less Spurs rebounding.
Overall, the San Antonio Spurs are still a phenomenal team with a HOF head coach and players. In my opinion (even as a Heat fan), the Spurs have a slight advantage in the series. Although the rest may cause the initial offense to be stagnant, they still move the ball better than any team in the league. Their team is balanced, and they have championship pedigree. Against a struggling Wade and Bosh, the Spurs may very likely pull out Game 1, and perhaps the series.
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